This week we welcome long-time friend of GLOBE, Dr. Peggy LeMone, Chief Scientist for the GLOBE Program from 2003-2009, as our guest blogger. Dr. LeMone is currently working in the field of weather and cloud formation at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

Originally posted at http://spark.ucar.edu/blog/measuring-rainfall on September 23, 2013.

Dr. Peggy LeMone is an NCAR Senior Scientist who studies weather and cloud formation. For more information about her research, visit Peggy’s home page.

A guest post by NCAR scientist Peggy LeMone

The Boulder, Colorado area received huge amounts of rain in mid-September.  You also learned that rainfall amounts vary a lot. Which brings us to the questions – How do you measure rain?  And how accurate are the measurements?  Even though I have done weather research for many years, during this storm I was reminded how hard it is to measure rain accurately.

This is the story of my attempts to measure rain during the storm. It’s also about the many possible sources of error when making rain measurements – from old rain gauges to growing trees and even, possibly, inquisitive raccoons.

By Monday morning (September 16), I had measured over 16 inches, or 405 millimeters (mm), in our backyard rain gauge from the storm which began September 10.  The gauge is the same type the National Weather Service uses. It has a funnel that deposits rain into an inner tube with a smaller diameter (like this one), but bigger. The inner tube’s diameter is just small enough to make the depth of rain ten times what it would be in a gauge without the tube and funnel.  Thus, each inch in the tube is equivalent to 0.1 inches (a tenth of an inch) of rainfall.  This is equivalent to how the GLOBE rain gauge measures rain: the inner tube acts like a 10x magnifying glass for the area of the rain gauge.  This makes it easier to read accurately!

My gauge is old. I inherited it from a weather-observing neighbor who moved away.  The funnel and inner tube doesn’t quite fit, so, I leave the gauge open and then pour the rain into the inner tube using the funnel.

On the morning of September 12th, the gauge was so full and heavy, with over seven inches (178 mm) of rain that I decided to stick a meter stick in the gauge to measure the rain amount, and save pouring into the inner tube for the end of the storm.  The gauge tilts slightly, so I took a measurement on the uptilt side and the downtilt side and calculated an average.   That evening I found that the bottom of the gauge sagged in the middle, leading to an even deeper measurement than the downtilt side.  With these flaws, the lack of the ten-to-one exaggeration of depth, and some measurements being taken in the dark with a flashlight, my data were only approximate. I recorded measurements to within the nearest quarter inch (see the graph below).

Were my measurements accurate? On Friday morning, September 13, I took measurement using a more accurate method to compare with my estimates.  After bailing out five full tubes of rain, I poured the remaining water through the funnel into the tube to a depth of 13.5 inches (343 mm), spilling a little bit during this process.  The result was 0.38 inches (9.5 mm) more than my rough estimate from the night before – a storm total of 14.52 inches (369 mm) up to this time. On the graph, this is marked as 1. (The lower shows the uncorrected values.)

But the rain hadn’t stopped.  I awoke on the morning of September 15^th and heard reports that up to 2 inches (51 mm) of rain fell overnight. I went outside to check our gauge – only to see that it had been knocked over (probably by raccoons).  Fortunately, I have a second rain gauge in my backyard – a plastic gauge that registered about 0.25 inches (6 mm). I added a conservative 0.2 inches (5 mm), since this gauge was under trees (marked as 2 on the graph).

The final number:  16.37 inches (416 mm) of rain, more or less.

The exposure of the rain gauge is undoubtedly the greatest source of error.  According to the National Weather Service and CoCoRAHS (both of which use citizen volunteers to measure rainfall), “exposure” of the rain gauge is important. Rain may be blocked by nearby obstacles causing the number to be lower than it should. Or, rain may be blown into or away from the gauge by wind gusts.  The recommendation is that the gauge be about twice the distance from the height of the nearest obstacles, but still sheltered from the wind.

The gauge was certainly sheltered from the wind.  It is located about 10 feet (~2 meters) south of the house, which is about 15 feet (5 meters) high, and to the west of a fence and small trees as well as the tree in the photograph.   There is a much smaller tree to the southwest.

All the obstacles suggest that some rain could have been blocked from reaching the gauge, which would imply that the rainfall total is too small.  On the other hand, some rain might have been running down the branch in the picture. (In fact, because of the large amount, I thought this might be the main effect before doing some research on exposure)

It is also recommended that the gauge be level, which it wasn’t.  I’m not too worried about this, since it was nearly vertical.

The conclusion?  There was a lot of rain.  It could have been an inch (25 mm) more or less than my measurement. Acknowledging this is called reporting error. It doesn’t mean that the measurements are wrong, it just gives an idea of how accurate they are. My total was not the largest; there were at least two other measurements near 18 inches (457 mm).

Now that I’ve described all that can go wrong measuring rainfall, let me add that, putting a rain gauge in the right place, and taking an accurate rainfall measurement is fairly easy. If you have a perfect cylinder, such as a GLOBE rain gauge, simply stick a ruler in and read the depth (make sure to correct for any offset of the “zero” line and correct for this offset; and see if the ruler pushes the water level up very much).

If you don’t have a rain gauge but have a bucket (or glass) with sides that aren’t straight up and down, you’ll need to do a little math to figure it out. Here’s what you’ll need to do:

1. Measure the diameter of the bucket at the level of the rain.  Subtract out twice the thickness of the walls.
2. Measure the diameter of the bucket at the bottom in the same way.
3. Calculate the average of the two diameters.
4. Divide by two to find the average radius.
5. Find the average volume of rain = Depth x radius x radius x 3.14.
6. Find the area at the top of the bucket (this is the area over which the rain is collected).
   1. Measure the diameter
   2. Divide the diameter by 2 to get the radius
   3. Area = radius x radius x 3.14 (remember that Area = pi x radius²)
7. Divide the rainfall volume by this area to get the rainfall.

It would be an interesting activity to put several buckets (or rain gauges) in different places in a field, your back yard, or your schoolyard to see how much the measurements vary within the area. Soup cans, though not perfect, would work pretty well for the activity, especially if they’re the same size.  I might try this during the next rainstorm.  (I hope not too soon!)

Does your school collect precipitation data? Have you had an extreme weather event that you were able to record? Let us know by adding a comment!

During our time in the Atmospheric Science doctoral program at Colorado State University (CSU), we would take breaks from frustrating programming efforts and run upstairs to the roof of the building to take pictures of clouds. We would identify them by name, describe the conditions in which they were forming, and head back inside to see if we could put them within the context of the radar and satellite imagery. As our collection continued to grow, we started to discuss the idea of creating a joint webpage or, at the very least, a shared online photo album to organize our cloud pictures from CSU and from our individual collections before those years. Unfortunately, this was also the time that we were both trying to finish up our dissertations, the final stage before the completion of a doctoral degree, and the cloud atlas simply remained a fun idea for the future. Eventually, Nick took a postdoctoral position at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, OK and Angela accepted a postdoctoral position at the University of Washington in Seattle.

As we both settled into our new jobs in new locations, we continued to add to our collection and decided that we were finally ready to start cataloging our pictures. By creating a Facebook page, not only could we easily organize and share our pictures, but it would also allow the opportunity for others to share their pictures with us. Thus the Community Cloud Atlas was born.

The goal of our page is to create an open environment for the public to share their pictures of the sky, identify clouds, and to discuss how they form and what they can tell us about the current and upcoming weather. We have created individual photo albums for each cloud type and are trying to fill them with pictures from all over the world.

 We are excited by the large variety of clouds that are represented so far, from the rare mammatus clouds to everyday fair-weather cumulus; we want to see them all! Not sure what the cloud is? No problem! Post it to our page and we’ll identify it for you. Do you just want to show off that beautiful sunset? Great! We would love to see it!

While we have no specific long-term plans for this page, we have already been asked by folks at NOVA to contribute pictures (with permission from the photographers) to their upcoming Cloud Lab project. It will be exciting to see how this project progresses and we look forward to an expanding community of cloud lovers!

Suggested activity: Take some photographs while you do your cloud observations, submit them to the Community Cloud Atlas on Facebook and be sure to submit your data to the GLOBE database.  Also be sure to share the photographs with The GLOBE Program – you can send them via email or post them to our Facebook Page.

When we decided that our effort to understand fresh water systems would move from Lake Superior to the Mississippi River it meant more than the change from a lentic system – still waters (as lakes or ponds) to a lotic system  – actively moving water.  It also became a matter of defining the cultural system that is part of the river.

Kate Crowley sits in a boat on Lake Superior, which shows how calm the waters are. Photo Courtesy of Mike Link.

On Lake Superior two countries shared the large lake, Canada and the United States, with one province in Canada and three states in the US.  The states were at similar latitudes since the lake’s largest measurement is east/west.  The people who live along the lake have adapted to similar climate and forest types and therefore have similar lifestyles.  They also have very similar immigration patterns with predominately northern European ethnic backgrounds.  These individuals came for logging, trapping, and mining opportunities,  so they were recruited from countries where those skills were common.  The American Indian population was predominately Algonquin – Cree First Nation in Canada, Ojibwe in the US, with a few Dakota (Sioux bands) remaining from the time before they were displaced by wars with the Ojibwe/Cree.

As we discussed in our first post, The Mississippi River has a watershed of 31 states and two Canadian Provinces.  Canada does not border the river, but it has a few tributaries that feed into the overall system.  Therefore, the political divisions of the river are all part of the US. Out of these 31 states, 10 actually border the Mississippi.

The river begins in the area of Northern Boreal Forest, but very near the Great Plains and flows south forming a natural boundary between the Eastern and Western United States.  Its primary tributaries are the Missouri River, which reaches to the mountains and can be said to be part of the Great Plains and American West, and the Ohio River, which runs from Pennsylvania in the east through the Midwestern states of Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois.  Historically the Ohio separated the North and the South as much as the famous Mason-Dixon Line – a much more arbitrary boundary.

Since the river runs from the lands of the black spruce and moose to the cypress and the alligator, it is obvious that we would find a lot of change.  Instead of following latitude, the Mississippi follows longitude and the climate shifts drastically from the Gulf of Mexico to the Canadian border.  We took a trip south by car as a preliminary investigation of the river to discover bike routes and make notes of the variations that stood out to two northerners!

Suggested activity: Think about how the Mississippi River would change with latitude as you traveled along its distance from north to south.  How could this inspire a local research project?  With the Phenology and Climate Intensive Observing Period occurring, think of the connection of latitude to phenological events such as Budburst, Green Up and Green Down.  Use GLOBE Student collected data to motivate your research further, and be sure to tell us about it either through a comment, our website, or our Facebook page.

While there are many issues facing land owners along the shores of Lake Superior, there are other concerning issues, such as the wild rice and fish spawning area on the Bad River Reservation in Wisconsin.

To Chippewa tribes around the Lake Superior basin, wild rice (manoomin) is “the food that grows on water.” It fulfilled a prophecy in the story of the Chippewa tribe’s migration from the east – how they would know they had found their new home. The Chippewa culture bases its history and survival on the natural harvest of fish and wild rice. In 2007, The Bad River Band, a tribe of Chippewa Indians in Northwestern Wisconsin, had to forego ricing because of the low water level. When this happens in isolated years it might allow the reseeding and expansion of rice production, but when it happens over a decade, no one can predict the outcome.

Young wild rice shoots floating on the Kakagon Sloughs, a coastal wetland on Lake Superior, Bad River Reservation, Wisconsin. Photo taken by K. Rodriguez. From US EPA.

In addition to the impact on wild rice, the natural fisheries of the lake have been impacted by many factors.  One such impact is the toxins that have entered bays with large factories that lacked the pollution prevention filtering. Many of those toxins remain in the water decades later. With water level reduced, the toxins concentrate in the water; the water warms and the fish species that might spawn are prone to failure because of both toxicity and temperature. We had expected to eat more fresh caught fish as we walked around, but the fishing, while good in some areas, has never fully recovered from the earlier combination of overfishing and the arrival of the sea lamprey. The wetlands that we need to be productive were so dry that we walked through many of them without getting our feet wet. This means the food sources for the fish, the habitat for birds, turtles, and other wetland species have had a prolonged period of limited production. We know wetlands are natural filters, but they cannot filter the water if the water does not reach the plants.

Another well documented impact of lower lake levels is  the impairment of shipping..  It speaks to the fact that the issue of low water and the changes in our climate are more than isolated affects, more than the concern a few individuals. Sea Grant, a NOAA administered network of 32 university-based programs that work with coastal communities, discussed this in their 2007 newsletter.

“From an economic standpoint, cargo ships have had to lighten their loads and sometimes vessels have been excluded from harbors. Additionally, power plants at the Soo Locks are running at a diminished capacity.  In August 2012 a 1027 foot freighter went aground within the St Mary River Channel that connects Lake Huron to Lake Superior with the final lift coming at the locks.  The boat not only suffered damage to its hull, it also caused numerous large vessels to anchor in Whitefish Bay and wait for the locks and river to clear for their downbound journey.

For the shipping industry, a one-inch (2.5 cm) water level drop can mean over 250 tons of coal will be left on the dock when a thousand-footer weighs anchor. A two-foot drop means that upwards of 6,000 tons, approximately ten percent of a thousand-footer’s capacity will be left behind. And it’s not like companies can just send more ships to pick up the slack.”

In these areas of concern we were not able to do original research.  Instead, we reviewed existing research, talked to scientists, and then made our observations in light of that knowledge.  On our hike we watched people swimming in Lake Superior like they do in our smaller lakes.  The water temperature was 20° F above normal in 2012.  It is worthy to note that in July of this year, temperatures on both land and water were the highest on record.

Walking along the coast of Lake Superior

Through our trip, our concerns became for the indigenous people of the lake, the resident lake owners and recreationists, the fish, the quality of the water, the economy, and the natural landscape. The continued argument over global climate change  should focus instead on observing what changes are going on and take necessary action. We need to prevent damage to our fresh water and our air. We need to think about the future and not debate whether humans can create a change in the climate – of course we can, just like we can create Chernobyls, BP oil spills, Hungarian toxic sludge flows, and Bhopal plant explosions!

In August of 2012, scientists published a report that worried about the change in the lake effect on communities because it no longer had a cooling effect in 2012.  If the warming continues the lifestyle and the cooling bills along the lake will change dramatically. To put it as plainly as we can: We have seen too many things done to our planet during our lifetime and we think that putting the planet first is a good idea and starting with Lake Superior is a wonderful way to begin the process.

I will be writing a series of blogs for GLOBE to share the scientific experiences that were part of a 145 day, 1555 mile (2502 km) hike around the largest freshwater lake in the world.  Note that it is measured by area, not depth or volume, two very significant measurements, but with less importance to our hike since area would determine the actual distance that we would cover.

Map of Lake Superior; from midwestweekends.com

My wife, Kate Crowley, and I chose to do this hike after my retirement from an environmental education center in Minnesota.  We are both in our sixties and  were the first couple to follow the shoreline of this magnificent lake.  We did it for many reasons – to promote healthy living, to get people to care about freshwater, and to challenge people to take action on their values and concerns.

Freshwater is one of the most important issues in the world. Living in Minnesota, which is known as the land of 10,000 lakes and is the headwaters for both the Great Lakes and the Great River (Mississippi), we feel we have an opportunity to share our concern with the world.

As a college instructor in science and environmental education, as well as director of the Audubon Center, education was a very important part of my career and I love to combine education and science.  The walk allowed us a chance to continue our focus on environmental education.

This blog is not about the hiking for 4 ½ months, but about the science we did as part of the effort.  Perhaps you can see how you might duplicate some of the research in places where you live.

Mike Link and Kate Crowley begin their journey around Lake Superior; photo courtesy of Mike Link

Part 1 Point samples

Our first commitment was to take photos every three miles along the shore with GPS locations and notes. The photos were taken in the four cardinal directions and serve as a visual record. We ended up doing 300 points. At first we thought we would do them regardless of whether we could see the shoreline or not, but eventually we questioned this and eliminated stops where the lake was not in sight.   We hope that these records will become available through GLOBE.

What this did was to cause us to take note of a variety of things that enriched our experience. For one thing, we were able to actually register the way the vegetation changes around the lake. On the south shore we found hemlock and beech and there was a nice mix of forest types with a substantial amount of deciduous trees. We found beautiful, healthy old white pines; very popular with bald eagles.

The large sand beaches that dominated this shoreline were usually backed up with a beach grass and beach pea community with pines, fir, and spruce behind them. Paper birch, aspen, yellow birch and maple were common deciduous trees in this region. I also found it fascinating how the mountain ash grows to tree size here. Because of Minnesota’s shoreline, I am used to thinking that the mountain ash is a shrub, but these were tall tree with high canopies mixed with the other native species.

Mike Link and Kate Crowley stopping for a rest on their hike around Lake Superior; photo courtesy of Mike Link

Moving north into Canada we transitioned from the white pine/birch/cedar forest to the boreal black spruce forest between Lake Superior Provincial Park and Pukaskwa National Park. Spruce became dominant and would stay with us across the northern reach of the lake. Sandy bays still had beach grass and beach pea, but the large areas of bedrock shoreline meant that lichens, mosses, butterwort, and sundew patches were common.

Traveling from Nipigon, Ontario, Canada to the south, the vegetation began to include more pines again. On the Sibley Peninsula, we felt the forest became what we expected, with the exception that on the exposed rocks and islands Arctic disjuncts (a species from the last ice age) still reproduce and flower. There are a few of these on the Susie Islands in Minnesota, near the border and some species on the shore, but nothing like the Canadian flora and its gorgeous array of plants like crusted saxifrage, Artic bramble, and alpine bistort. This area of Lake Superior supports many of these species that are globally rare.

As we walked down the Minnesota coastline we moved into second and third growth forests with lots of birch and aspen. Second and third growth forests are forests which have re-grown after a major disturbance, such as a fire, insect infestation or timber harvest.  In these forests, the birch was often in poor shape and there were no young white cedar because of the voracious white tail deer. The mountain maple is browsed extensively by the deer, but seems able to withstand the onslaught, while species like mountain ash are nipped back to the ground almost as soon as they have a season of growth. We found the Encampment Forest Reserve to be one of the last vestiges of the original shoreline vegetation.

HOW WILL THIS BE USED?

You may hear people say – “It wasn’t like that when I was a kid.”  People will talk about change and say that things were different, but that is what we call anecdotal evidence.  It is based on memory and inconsistent reporting.  So how do we answer the question of how has the lake shore changed over the years and not use anecdotal evidence?

Our point samples become a baseline.  We know the day, the year, and the GPS points and those will remain a consistent reference point.  In other years people can use GPS to go back to the same place and observe and measure the changes according to our records.  This can be replicated in your backyard, school yard, or any place you want to create a permanent baseline record for others in future years.

From the first part of the series, you can see how important GPS is to Earth System Science research.  We would love to hear how you have used GPS protocols in your research!  Leave us  a comment or email us at science@globe.gov.

It continues to be really hot in the central part of the US. The thermometer at our house says 98 F (37 C) today which is July 4, 2012. The number of 90 F (32 C) plus days this year has been high as well. There have been 8 days about 90 F (32 C) a my house in Temperance, MI so far this June and July. Toledo has had 12 days 90 F (32 C).

Last week I took some surface temperature observations using the GLOBE protocol for infrared thermometer. I measured the temperature of a parking lot with a cover of asphalt, a grassy area and an area with bare soil where the ground had been dug up. Which one do you think was the hottest? The grass was 34 C (94 F), the asphalt was 52 C (126 F) and the bare soil was 64 C (148 F). I didn’t expect the bare soil to be so hot.
NASA has produced a temperature anomaly image from satellite imagery (see below). The red shows areas where the temperature was above average and the blue shows temperatures below average for June 28, 2012. You can see that a large part of the US was red, above average.

Temperature anomaly image of the United States from satellite imagery. From NASA

This heat has dried things out as well. I have been watering my garden every day. I really enjoy growing our own food. I knew it was dry because there was an area of the garden that the sprinkler missed watering. In that spot, even the weeds were dried up.

The Palmer Drought Severity Index in the image below shows that large parts of the United States are in drought right now. In fact, in northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan where I live, we have severe to extreme drought conditions.

Palmer Drought Severity Index from 26 June 2012. From NOAA

Yesterday, a friend of mine posted on Facebook that he saw a fire in the forest near his house in Michigan. In this dry, hot weather, brush fires can easily start anywhere. He called 911 for the fire department to put it out. That was a wise thing to do. If you come upon a similar situation, tell an adult and/or call 911.
The fires in Colorado are related to this dry weather. The satellite image below from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite shows the current fires out west from NASA. Colorado has clouds over the mountains so the smoke from the fires is not visible.

MODIS satellite image of fires in the western United States. From NASA

Why is it so hot? The upper atmosphere has been stuck in a pattern with a ridge over the center part of the US (see image below). This is a common summer time pattern with troughs over the western and eastern US. But, this summer it has been particularly persistent and hot. The troughs on the east and west coasts have kept those locations relatively cool. This image is the 500 mb map that is about 10 km (6 miles) above sea level. It is made by the National Weather Service using balloon observations at 0 UTM and 12 UTM.

500 mb map showing persistent ridging over the United States

Today was one of the hotter days that we have had in Toledo in a long time. The maximum temperature was 97 F (36 C). It is hot from the Rockies all the way to the east coast of the United States. On Sunday and Monday of this week, I was in Boulder, Colorado. The temperature reached 104 F (40 C) on Monday. What was interesting was that people were still out exercising or talking on the street. I had a really hard time believe that they could do it. But, to be honest, although it was hot, it did not seem oppressively hot. The reason was that the relative humidity was about 10%. The relative humidity is the ratio of the actual amount of water vapor in the air to the amount of water vapor the air can hold given its temperature. Warm air holds more water vapor than cold air with the amount increasing exponentially as temperatures get warmer. No wonder the relative humidity was so low. It was partly due to the temperature being so high and partly due to the low amount of water vapor in the air. Today in Toledo, the temperature was 95 F (35 C) but it felt much hotter. The relative humidity was about 40%. That means there was quite a bit of water vapor in the atmosphere. 40% relative humidity would still be considered pretty dry.

Below are the warnings on Friday, June 29, from the National Weather Service. You can see that there are large areas that are red in the image are heat warnings or fire warnings over large areas of the central US.

Watches and warnings for the United States from 29 June 2012. From NOAA

In Toledo, it is quite dry as well. The grass is all brown. In fact, the National Weather Service office has issued a fire warning for the area. This area is not known for its wildfires. You probably have heard by now of the devastating wild fires that are going on in Colorado. They have gotten worse since I came back.

The forecast is for the heat wave to continue. Stay cool. Stay in the shade if you are outside and drink lots of water. Heat stroke is very serious.

Dr. C

More information about Dr. Czajkowski: Dr. Czajkowski spent three years developing remote sensing research at the University of Maryland. Upon arrival at the University of Toledo, he established a research program in remote sensing and the Geographic Information Science and Applied Geographics (GISAG) Lab. His main areas of interest are remote sensing, climate change and K-12 outreach. His research includes the use of remote sensing to investigate water quality, i.e., assessing the source regions and destinations of contaminants in the Lake Erie watershed. He has developed a K-12 educational outreach program called Studnets and Teachers Exploring Local Landscapes to Investigate the Earth from Space (SATELLITES) that brings geospatial technology to K-12 students through teacher professional development and an annual student conference. He developed the surface temperature protocol through GLOBE so that students can investigate how land use where they live affects the energy budget. Each year he organizes the surface temperature field campaign.  Dr. Czajkowski is a blogger on his own, and this post comes from his blog, which you can find here.

A look at the High Park fire burning along a creek near Ft. Collins, Colorado in June 2012. Credit: Kerry Webster

Recently, the state of Colorado has seen a number of wildfires flare up.  What causes these fires is always a point of concern.  Was it a thunderstorm,  a campfire that continued to smolder, the butt of a discarded cigarette from a passing vehicle or the spark of a chainsaw of a worker trying to remove a beetle kill tree to prevent a fire?  Currently, there are eleven fires burning across the state, mostly in rural mountainous areas, but some have already destroyed homes and threatened more heavily populated areas, such as subdivisions on the outskirts of Ft. Collins, Colorado as well as in the city limits of Colorado Springs, Colorado.

In addition to threatening communities, these fires can create their own weather systems.  Pyrocumulus clouds are often seen with very intense fires, such as firestorms, which are intense fire-driven wind systems.  Firestorms are formed as the fire takes in air from all sides, forming an updraft.  As the intake increases, the fire can grow even stronger as fresh air feeds it.  Sometimes if the updraft is strong enough, it can form a pyrocumulus cloud.  Sometimes these clouds can condense enough moisture that it falls as rain, helping to extinguish the fire.  Other times, the cloud may grow so large that it becomes a cumulonimbus, producing additional lightning and sparking other fires.

Pyrocumulus from the High Park fire in Colorado from June 2012 Credit: Kerry Webster

The High Park Fire, occurring outside of the city of Ft. Collins, Colorado, is the second largest fire in state history.  This specific fire was started by a thunderstorm that occurred in the early morning hours on 9 June 2012.  As of publishing time today, the fire had consumed 87,284 acres. This fire, consuming many beetle kill timber, has continued to burn due to persistent hot and dry weather.  Coupled with high winds, these three conditions make it easy for fire to spread and continue burning.  Why do hot, dry and windy conditions fuel fires?

Hot weather, in general, increases evaporation rates.  Evaporation is an essential part of the water cycle, driven by the sun. The sun heats the ground, which provides enough energy for water to transition from liquid state to vapor state.  If hot weather persists long enough without relief, evaporation can exceed precipitation, which results in dry conditions.  And if conditions stay dry for a long enough amount of time, plants die and become prime fuel for fires.  Add in the beetle kill, and you have an area of land with timber and dry grasses just waiting to ignite.  The final condition, high winds, is a fairly straight-forward condition: with high winds, sparks and embers are able to travel further than they would in calm conditions, allowing fires to grow quickly.

Close up of a tree on fire as part of the High Park Fire outside of Ft. Collins, CO in June 2012 Credit: Kerry Webster

The GLOBE program has protocols to examine many aspects of fires.  In addition to atmosphere protocols that measure temperature and relative humidity, GLOBE has a fire fuel protocol that helps students measure the different types of fuels for fires.  Students are able to learn about the different types of living and dead organic materials that can become fuels for wild fires.  Through the use of this protocol, students can further understand fire behavior and effects, such as fire spread (how fast a fire moves) and fire intensity (the flame length).

Progression of the High Park Fire, with red being most recent burn. Credit: Kerry Webster

As summer continues in the northern hemisphere, fire awareness becomes even more important.  The State of Colorado has implemented a state wide fire burn ban; therefore no open flames are allowed until the ban is lifted.  But Colorado isn’t the only place experiencing fires.  Many states in the western United States are under fire watches, as the region experiences drastic precipitation deficits.  The need for rain is high, and the summer, typically a relatively dry season for the region, is only beginning.

Special thanks to Kerry Webster, a firefighter with the National Park Service in Boulder, Colorado for providing the photographs in this post.  Kerry has been actively fighting both the High Park Fire outside of Ft. Collins, Colorado as well as the Flagstaff Fire, which ignited on 26 June 2012 due to lightning in rural Boulder County, Colorado.

-Jessica Mackaro

Daffodils in bloom in late February

Many think it’s really nice to see green grass, budding trees, and flowers in bloom in late February, as it’s a spirit lift after a couple of months of cloudy skies and cold rains or snows.  However, these early bloomers are a bit problematic, as gardens aren’t given a good length of time to be dormant. Dormancy is important to plants, because it gives them a chance to rest.  By resting, it allows the plant to conserve the energy that they will need for growth and development.   If spring continues to come early, plants may think that spring is here to stay even though there is the potential for frost.  Growers in the Northeast of the United States are worried that if freezing weather returns overnight their already budding crops, such as apples, may not survive.  Additionally, pollination may not occur as easily because insects that pollinate plants may not yet be out of hibernation.  This would be a problem because plants will already be past the time they are primed for pollination when insects emerge.

The last decade has been so warm that the United States Department of Agriculture in coordination with Oregon State University has released a new growing chart, which provides instructions on when to plant based on location.  This is the first time it has been updated in nearly 22 years.  This new map is more accurate and detailed than previous versions and can be found on the USDA’s website.

Plant Hardiness Map - from USDA

It’s not only phenology that is being affected, but also hydrology too.  White Bear Lake in Minnesota (USA) finished its spring thaw early – so early in fact that it broke the early thaw record set in 2000 by two days on March 19.  Another nearby lake, Lake Waconia, went ice-free 25 days earlier than average, and broke the record by six days.  With this record-breaking melt, frogs and migratory birds have been heard and seen well ahead of normal as well.

What is the cause of this?  Some scientists point to climate change.  Some of it can also be attributed to climate patterns that were discussed in a previous blog post about Europe’s cold weather. However, it is too early to tell if this is going to continue into the future.  What is important is to remain diligent in watching the trend of bud burst and ice melt over the course of many years.  Using GLOBE protocols can aide your school in keeping track of these seasonal changes at your location!

Are you located in an area that is having an early spring?  Send us an email or add a comment to let us know about what signs of spring are happening near you!

-Jessica Mackaro

Growing up, I always heard sayings about months and the corresponding weather patterns.  Some included “April showers bring May flowers” and then of course the one dealing with the month of March, “in like a lion, out like a lamb”.  With this March beginning with a tornado outbreak throughout the Ohio River Valley (131 reported tornadoes on March 2nd), some may wonder, will it actually go out like a lamb?  Is there any truth behind this saying, or is it just a phrase society has been hooked on?

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center reports for the March 2, 2012 tornado outbreak. Image courtesy of SPC http://spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120302_rpts_filtered.gif

When we examine March in terms of weather events, there is a large amount of variability.  In the northern hemisphere, March is a transitional period between the seasons with winter exiting and spring entering. The transition between the two seasons is what causes March to have its variability in terms of weather phenomena.  Growing up in northern Illinois in the central United States, I remember having Spring Breaks with snow falling and others with temperatures warm enough to do outdoor activities.  That is a substantial difference in terms of weather from year to year.  The transition period can be observed when the seasons change between winter and spring; it does not matter your location.  However, it can be more prevalent in regions with a more drastic change in the seasons opposed to regions that have the same weather variations throughout the year.

With the transition causing so many differences from year to year, it is hard to say, “in like a lion, out like a lamb” is always accurate.  Although it can be true some years where the beginning and end of March are considerably different.  In Illinois, the end of March is generally very pleasant.  Temperatures are getting warmer, the snow is melting, and there isn’t much variability in temperatures over a few days.  That is because spring is beginning to settle in and winter has exited.  Don’t forget, spring is still an active period for weather patterns, as it marks the beginning of the severe weather season in most locations.

Using your GLOBE data, how many years do you have with March that comes in like a lion and out like a lamb?  How many years are there that have no considerable change?  Do you believe March usually comes in like a lion and out like a lamb?  Try it out for yourself.  And, what other weather phrases have you heard?  Add a comment or send an email at science@globe.gov to let us know.

- Ashley Kaepplinger

The first topic I wanted to address was the title of the book, because it is a very interesting idea.  As it suggests, at different times during history, there have been times that frogs and fish have been seen in locations that couldn’t be explained.   Maybe your grandparents have told you a story about something similar that you couldn’t believe could be true.  It is important for you to use your knowledge to come to a conclusion before you accept it as true or false.

In 1921, a paper was published entitled “Rains of Fishes” that documented hundreds of years of accounts of fish falling from the skies.  The accounts documented in this paper range from the city streets of New York to rural Indiana.   The author of the paper proposed quite a few methods for the fish to fall from the sky, such as witnesses observing species of fish that actually can migrate over land or that the fish had been lifted from a nearby ocean, lake, or stream.  As with controversial topics, skeptics began to question the findings in this paper and wrote their own versions.  It wasn’t until 1947 when a biologist in Louisiana witnessed for himself a rain of fish and reported it in Science magazine.

In addition to these locations in the United States, there are reports of fish falling from the sky from India, Scotland, and Greece.   Even with multiple countries reporting such events, it still isn’t clear if these fish are actually falling from the sky after having been picked up by a severe weather event, or if there is another explanation for it.

But it’s not just fish that have been reported.  Frogs, hazelnuts, and grain have also been observed falling from the sky.  These reports come from the United States, Germany, Ireland, India, and China.  Like the fish rain, these reports are harder to explain, especially when associated with clear skies.  In 1989, a frog swarm was seen prior to the Loma Prieta earthquake in California.  While some wondered where these frogs came from, it is thought that their intuition had them move before the earthquake hit.  This was also seen in 2008 prior to the Sichuan earthquake in China.

As with all phenomena that aren’t intuitive, it is interesting to take a look at all of the factors to find an explanation that can be based on facts.   In the case of fish, was there a flash flood that may have brought the fish onto land and left them there when the waters receded?  Was there a tornado or water spout that may have deposited the fish on land?  Or was it a species that is known to migrate over land occasionally?

This idea is the vision of The GLOBE Program – promoting and supporting teachers, students, and scientists to promote inquiry-based study and research.  Have you used inquiry to answer a question that didn’t make sense?  We’d love to hear about it! Let us know through a comment or email!