The following image is a look at each December’s monthly average temperature, beginning in 1995.  The black line represents the temperature trend over the seventeen years that this school has collected data – an estimated increase of .1601°C over the 17 year period.

A timeseries showing December monthly temperatures from 1995-2011 for Zakladni Skola – Ekolog. Praktikum in Jicin, Czech Republic;
All data is GLOBE student collected data.

Using this knowledge, and setting the base 10 year reference period of 1998-2007, it is easy to calculate the short-term average for this station to determine the departure from that average.  The average temperature for December is 0.211°C.  This average is easy to calculate.  First, you calculate the average daily temperature by averaging the observed maximum and minimum temperatures.  Then, you average the daily average temperatures together to obtain the average temperature for the month of December.  Once you’ve done that for each of the Decembers from 1998-2007, you can average those together to get your average December temperature.  From here you can examine how each December departs from that average, and put it into graphical format, like below.

Departure from 10 year (1998-2007) average December temperature for Zakladni Skola – Ekolog. Praktikum in Jicin, Czech Republic; All data is GLOBE student collected data

Notice that at the beginning of the time period the occurrence of below normal temperatures was more common.  As time progressed, temperatures became more above normal, which supports the trend in monthly temperature.  Globally, the month of December 2011 was the 322^nd consecutive month where global average temperature was above the 20^th century normal – the last month that was below normal across the globe was February 1985.

Another school, Primarschule Neufeld in Thun, Bern Switzerland, has been collecting atmosphere data since 1998.  The graph below shows the monthly average temperature for each December since 1998, which indicates a positive temperature trend of 0.088°C over the entire time period.

A timeseries showing December monthly temperatures from 1998-2012 for Primarschule Neufeld in Thun, Bern Switzerland;
All data is GLOBE student collected data

Using the same base 10 year reference period of 1998-2007 as we did for the school from the Czech Republic, it is found that the average temperature for December for the school in Switzerland is 1.101°C.

Departure from the 10 year (1998-2007) average December temperature for Primarschule Neufeld in Thun, Bern Switzerland; All data is GLOBE student collected data.

It is very important, as a member of the GLOBE community, to continue building this observational record for your site.  Every data point is important in describing the bigger picture.

Suggested activity: Over the next 12 years, GLOBE students will collect enough data to be able to examine long-term changes in variables such as air temperature.  However, you can start examining your data, or data of a nearby school now.  You can even examine the data from these two schools to look at the trends for June.  What do you think you will find? We’d love to hear from you.  Leave us a comment, send us an email or get in touch on our Facebook Page.

The Maldives are a great location for such an experiment because during the months of November through March, the country experiences its dry season with respect to the monsoon, and pollutant heavy air can be seen traveling from thousands of kilometers away from countries like India and Pakistan.  Furthermore, the island nation has a low elevation and is extremely sensitive to changes in sea level rise.

A map of the Maldives. From Worldatlas.com

Through the research, Ramanathan and his colleagues discovered that these pollutants are primarily composed of black carbon soot that comes from the burning of fossil fuels and biomass.  With the longevity of the research, they were able to understand that there is a strong heating effect of these pollutants.   But black carbon soot affects more than air temperature – it destroys millions of tons of crops annually and causes human health concerns.  The good news is that this type of emission is easy to reduce due to the face that its lifespan in the atmosphere is short.

Sources of black carbon emission. From AGU.org

If these types of pollutants are reduced quickly, the long-term negative effects of climate change can be reduced by nearly 50% in the next 20-30 years.  With Ramanathan’s research, The Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) was established.  The CCAC is focusing on the reduction of short lived pollutants by nearly one third to protect and improve human health and agriculture.

And while the relationship between black carbon soot and warming is better understood, and has recently been presented by the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project, the affect the black carbon has on clouds and the type that form is still unknown.  Further research is necessary to understand the feedback between black carbon affected clouds and climate change.

Suggested activity: If you’re a GLOBE school in an area that sees seasonal fluctuations in air quality, you can perform your own research study to see the affect that air pollution has on your local temperature, cloud type and cloud cover.  Start by taking air temperature, cloud clover, cloud type and aerosol measurements and enter them into the GLOBE database.  Then as your database grows, start to examine the relationships that exist between the variables.  Then, be sure to tell us about it.  You can share your future research plans with us through a comment, email or on our Facebook Page.  For more information on Ramanathan’s research, watch this video.

-Jessica Mackaro

An intricate network of soil microorganisms From: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CISRO).

The study, performed by scientists from the University of New Hampshire, the University of California-Davis and the Marine Biological Laboratory, examined how microorganisms in the soil respond to temperature changes.  By learning more about that process, scientists could then improve the prediction of how much carbon dioxide is released from the soil.

Microorganisms in the soil release carbon dioxide as a byproduct of how they utilize their food source.  There are two types of food sources: glucose, a simple food source that is release from plant roots, and phenol, a complex food source that comes from decomposing organic matter such as wood and leaves.  Under normal conditions, they release at least 10 times the amount of carbon dioxide that human activities do in a year through the breakdown of these two food sources.  For a perspective on what this amount means, take a look at the graph below, taken from a study from 2010.

Time series of global carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Image from EPA.

This dramatic amount of carbon dioxide is usually absorbed through the root uptake of trees.  But if the soil warms too much, then these microorganisms are not as efficient at breaking down their food, and thus release more carbon dioxide as they expend the energy.  They are then over-producing, and the trees and plants will not take up as much.  In the short term, it may lead to a positive feedback cycle – where more carbon dioxide is emitted contributing to the rising amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

However, this same research showed that these microorganisms may have the once again become efficient with their food breakdown after many years of warmer soil temperatures.  After approximately 18 years, the community once again became efficient in their ability to break down food.  This may be due to one of the following things: a change in the community of microorganisms (i.e. the type of microorganism changes), a change in the available nutrients,  and/or species adaptation.

While GLOBE doesn’t have protocols to look directly at microorganisms in the soil, it does have protocols to examine soil temperature.  This is just as important, because soil temperature directly affects many things, such as the timing of Budburst, Green Up and Green Down.  The timing of the phenological processes is important because it informs farmers when to plant crops.   For these reasons, it is very valuable to collect soil temperature data and monitor its changes through the seasons and years.

Suggested activity: Have you collecting soil temperature data?  Did you participate in December’s Surface Temperature Field Campaign?  Have you seen any changes?  We’d love to hear about your experience!  Leave a comment, share with us on our Facebook page, or send us an email.  And make sure you enter the data you’re collecting into the GLOBE database!

-Jessica Mackaro

Scientists are well aware of the potential implications that climate has on these trees, what they aren’t aware of is the affect that the reduction in forest will have on the world’s ecosystems.   Trees act like giant lungs, taking in carbon dioxide and releasing oxygen.  Studies have shown that trees take in more than 50% of human-generated carbon dioxide and store it.   Therefore, if these big trees continue to die, there’s more carbon dioxide left in the atmosphere, which can lead to additional atmospheric warming.  Furthermore, if the trees are dead, they cannot provide the key nutrients, such as nitrogen or seeding, to the surrounding soil to allow the forest to re-establish itself after fire or windstorm.

Forest die-off can also affect things like surface moisture and climate classification.  Heat and drought affect each tree species differently, which can result in a long-term shift in the dominant species found in a location.  For example, a forest may become grassland.  This will also affect soil moisture, as there will be no tree canopy to intercept rainfall or prevent the exposure to harsh sun and wind.

But it goes further than that.  Trees provide homes to many different types of animal life, from mammals to birds and reptiles.  As the trees die, these animals are forced to look for a new habitat.   It is feared that as trees die, so will different species that rely on these old trees.

The GLOBE Program has protocols that can aide in the examination of how these forests are changing. Looking at land cover classification while taking air temperature and precipitation measurements can start the foundation for an exploration between climate change and land cover change.  The month of January features a repeat of the Climate and Land Cover Intensive Observing Period (IOP).  With that IOP, teachers and students are encouraged to classify their land cover as well as take photographs.  By keeping these records over the years, GLOBE schools can contribute to studies following forest mortality.

Suggested activity: Participate in the January Climate and Land Cover IOP by establishing or visiting your land cover site.  Submit your photographs and land cover classification to the GLOBE website.

-Jessica Mackaro

Surface temperature map of the United States, from the RUC analysis at 1800 UTC on 13 January 2013; Image courtesy of RAL Real-Time Weather Data

When we looked at the weather map, we were amazed to see such a strong temperature gradient, which is how quickly temperature changes over a given distance.  This was the result of a very strong cold front that moved across the country bringing chilling Arctic air into the heart of the U.S., where you can see some temperatures fell well below -17.8 °C (0 °F).  Ahead of the cold front, temperatures soared, however only until the cold front passed.  If you examine hourly observations from the Southeast U.S., you’ll find some dramatic temperature drops.  For example, in Memphis, TN, the temperature fell nearly 8°C (18°F) in only one hour and fifteen minutes.

Outside of the United States, there are many other countries experiencing extreme weather.  Thousands of people have had to evacuate their homes in Russia after a pipeline burst in the extreme and record cold and Jerusalem, Israel experienced a very rare snowfall last week.  Conversely, Australia is experiencing raging brush fires as the country is gripped by a record-breaking heat wave.  This heat wave has been so intense that road tar has melted and the Bureau of Meteorology had to add two new colors to its temperature maps.

Children play in front of the Dome on the Rock during the recent snowstorm in Israel; Photo from Reuters/Ammar Awad

A map from space showing hotspots from brushfires (red dots) in Tasmania; from NASA

While these are examples of weather extremes, they are not necessarily indicators of climate.  It is important to reiterate the difference between weather and climate, as these kinds of weather extremes often get people talking about how it relates to climate and climate change.  Weather is the current state of the atmosphere, the temperatures and weather systems that sweep through a nation over the course of a day or a week, while climate is the long-term average and trend of weather events over many years.  Thus, while these weather extremes are dramatic on both ends of the spectrum, they may not affect a location’s climate unless they occur repeatedly, for many years to come.  It is also important to realize that weather extremes are not uncommon; cold fronts often create sharp temperature gradients and weather patterns can set up to create heat waves or cold spells.  However these extremes may be occurring more frequently and at record-breaking levels due to climate change.

In order to document extreme weather and if it is occurring frequently enough to impact climate, it is important to collect data on a daily basis for many years.  Over time, these data help identify if any long-term trends are occurring.  The GLOBE Program sponsors the Great Global Investigation of Climate project to encourage GLOBE schools to collect regular, daily temperature and precipitation data for this very reason.  The data collection efforts of GLOBE schools help contribute valuable data to monitor weather and climate across the planet.  Just look at this example from Fayetteville High School in Arkansas.  The daily temperature observations of maximum temperature at their school over the past two weeks illustrate the warm up and then extreme cool down that occurred as the cold front passed on January 13th.   These kinds of weather data, recorded over long periods of time, are the key pieces of evidence needed to help decipher if these tales of weather extremes are leading us toward a change in climate.

Maximum daily air temperature (degrees C) recorded by Fayetteville High School in Arkansas between 1-14 January 2013.

Suggested activity: Have you been affected by this recent extreme weather?  Let us know about it by leaving a comment or sending us an email.  Also, use the recent extreme weather to develop and carryout a research topic, then email it to us at science@globe.gov.  And don’t forget to collect data for the Great Global Investigation of Climate, which repeats again in March!

- Jessica Mackaro and Sarah Tessendorf

A graphical representation of carbon dioxide variations. From Science Blogs

So I began to wonder, is global warming causing more droughts?  Or are more droughts leading to more global warming?  Which caused the other first (e.g., which came first—the chicken or the egg)?

While our understanding of the Earth System would imply that droughts alone have not caused global warming, it is now clear that they can further enhance it.  This is an example of a positive feedback loop in the Earth System.  A positive feedback means that one process occurs, causing a subsequent process to occur that results in an outcome that further enhances the first process, and the cycle amplifies and continues over time.  A negative feedback, however, would cause the opposite to happen where the subsequent process results in an outcome that counteracts or weakens the first process.

There are also examples of negative feedbacks in our Earth System.  Take for example when the Earth’s ocean surface temperature heats up, it causes more evaporation from the oceans.  This additional source of moisture into the atmosphere over the oceans can lead to more low-level marine clouds.  Low-level marine stratocumulus clouds are often very reflective of solar radiation, so more of these clouds can thus increase the Earth’s albedo (or solar radiation reflectivity) and thereby cool the ocean surface temperatures.

Another example of a positive feedback; the changing albedo when sea ice melts due to global warming. From Vancouver Observer

Don’t be fooled, however, by the terms positive and negative feedback, which may imply one is good and one is bad.  It is actually often the opposite; that the negative feedbacks are what produce balance in the Earth System, whereas the positive feedback loops can act like a runaway train.  Either way, most of these processes are completely natural; however, some can and are being influenced by human activity.  As responsible residents of this planet, we need to do our best to understand how our actions are affecting our home and try to prevent any runaway trains from occurring on our watch.

Suggested activity: Investigate the albedo of various surfaces near you in the GLOBE Surface Temperature Field Campaign and try to estimate if the surface cover changed, would it act as a positive or negative feedback in your local community.

-Sarah Tessendorf

But who feels these effects first? Usually, equatorial countries that border the Pacific Ocean. But even these countries can experience vastly different weather conditions. During an El Niño event, Ecuador, for example, may experience severe rain and flooding, while the northern region of Australia may have a drought. As the event continues, the regions affected grow, and countries such as India, Chile and Madagascar will feel the effects.

By studying many El Niño and La Niña events over time, scientists are able to predict that when an El Niño event occurs, during the months of December through February and then in the following June through August, the following areas will see the conditions indicated in the following image:

Feeling the effects of a warm episode. Image courtesy of NOAA.

Likewise, the relationships for La Niña have been documented  in a similar manner, with different effects felt in various regions:

Feeling the effects of a cold episode. Image courtesy of NOAA.

During the historical El Niño event of 1997, GLOBE students monitored the event by collecting air, water and soil temperature, solid and liquid precipitation and soil moisture data through their corresponding protocols.  These students used historical data as well as their observations to test the hypothesis laid out by scientists in the images above.  It was important to students not highlighted in the regions above to also collect data – they too were testing the hypothesis.

Even though it’s been many years since the 1997 event, this oscillation continues to occur and you are able to investigate the connection between this Pacific Ocean oscillation and your local weather.

Suggested activity: Study the maps above, and create a hypothesis that you can test.  Using historical data, test that hypothesis for a year where either an El Niño or La Niña occurred.  You can find these historical events from NOAA.  Then, be prepared to begin collecting data when another event occurs.

-Jessica Mackaro

Formation

El Niño is a temporary change in the Pacific Ocean, in the area of the Equator.  Generally, winds in this region blow strongly from east to west (in the mid-latitudes, like where the GLOBE Program Office is located, winds blow from west to east).  Since the winds blow this way over extended periods of time, water in the western Pacific “piles up”.  The water that piles up in this region is warm (approximately 30°C), since the wind pushes the sun-warmed shallow layer of the ocean.  With warmer waters, you tend to see an increase in thunderstorm activity.  So this region that has warmer water, like the northern coast of Australia, sees thunderstorm activity.

The water further east is colder (approximately 22°C) because the deeper water is pulled up to replace the water that has been pushed away. So areas along the western coast of Equatorial South America will see cold temperatures.  Figure 1, taken from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University, shows a schematic of the water temperature as well as the accompanying atmospheric circulation.

Figure 1. Schematic of normal conditions. From IRI.

In a positive phase, also known as El Niño, the winds that push the water to the west weaken.  Since the winds are weaker or even reverse, not as much water piles up in the western Pacific, so the water slides back toward the east.  With the warmer water sliding back toward the east, not as much cold water rises along the coast.  This results in warmer waters off the coast of equatorial South America.  Once this gets going, the situation continues and strengthens: the warmer waters cause the winds to weaken even further, which results in the ocean warming further, which causes the winds to weaken, which results in the ocean warming.  This is known as a positive feedback, and allows El Niño to grow.  Figure 2, also from IRI, shows El Niño.

Figure 2. Schematic of an El Nino event. From IRI

What happens if the winds actually strengthen? This results in even more warm waters piling up in the western Pacific and even more cold water upwelling along the western coast of Equatorial South America.  This scenario is known as La Niña, or the negative phase of ENSO, and it brings with it different weather patterns.   As with El Niño, there is a positive feedback that happens with the winds and allows the event to strengthen:  the colder waters cause the winds to strengthen even further, which results in the ocean cooling further, which causes the winds to strengthen, which results in the ocean cooling.  Figure 3, again from IRI, shows the schematic for a La Niña event.

Figure 3. Schematic of a La Nina event. From IRI

GLOBE schools have been affected by both El Niño and La Niña.  In 1997, a historically strong El Niño event took place (note: an event is classified as weak, moderate or strong depending upon how far the sea surface temperature departure from normal is over at least five consecutive months).  Students in regions affected by this El Niño took measurements to examine what the effects were locally.  As we continue in this series, we’ll be sure to feature some of the schools making these measurements.

Suggested activity: No matter which region of the world you’re located, you can examine the relationship between your local weather and ENSO.  Taking air temperature and precipitation measurements are great ways to start.  You can then connect those measurements to the Oceanic Niño Index by examining the correlation.  While many studies have been performed using the combination of these observations, it is worthwhile for students to also examine these studies, as this helps makes the connection from local to global.

-Jessica Mackaro

Thus, the workshop brought together emerging scientists in the physical sciences (e.g., atmospheric and climate scientists, hydrologists) and the social sciences (e.g., anthropologists, sociologists). I attended the workshop representing atmospheric scientists who study the water cycle, and I learned a lot about the need for interdisciplinary efforts to address problems in the water-climate-society nexus. One of the things I learned was a new term: non-stationarity.

Non-stationarity means that what used to be normal is not normal anymore. It means that our climate system can no longer be considered stationary. The extremes in our climate system of the past, can no longer be considered the outer limits of what our current and future climate system can exceed. For example, a 100-year flood could now be expected to happen more frequently than once in a 100-year period; thus it may become a 50-year flood, or less.

Image looking at the magnitude and frequency of 100 year floods, from Ohio Department of Natural Resources

The principle of non-stationarity has broad implications. Insurance companies, that base their rates on the likelihood that extreme events will or will not occur, are now having an even harder time doing their risk analyses. Engineers that build dams, levees, and bridges are challenged to build structures that can withstand extreme conditions that we used to not think possible. And communities, especially those in areas vulnerable to sea level rise, drought, or floods, are faced with even tougher potential conditions to adapt to. While the term is just becoming part of my vocabulary, the effects of non-stationarity will be felt for years to come. Thus, accepting this new concept and starting to frame our adaptation solutions around it is crucial as our communities respond to the changing climate.

Future drought. These four maps illustrate the potential for future drought worldwide over the decades indicated, based on current projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. From Aiguo Dai, NCAR.

Suggested GLOBE activity: Taking climate measurements regularly, for many years to come, will help provide data to establish climate baselines (or “normals”), and over a long enough period of time will help monitor if these baselines are shifting. You can contribute to these climate data sets by participating in the Great Global Investigation of Climate, the Climate and Land Cover project, and/or the Phenology and Climate project.

If you are interested in interdisciplinary science related to the water-climate-society interface, please see a resource list that was compiled by workshop participants to learn more about programs to get involved in.

-Sarah Tessendorf