Earlier this summer, scientists predicted about a 75% chance of a La Niña following the El Niño from 2015-2016. But now, a La Niña is most likely not going to happen, with a 40% chance as of September.
Last Spring, waters in the Pacific Ocean seemed to be cooling off. This is an indicator of a La Niña weather pattern. Scientists have now noticed that these water temperatures have been leveling off, thus decreasing the chance of a La Niña event.
The current ENSO period of neutrality will continue into the Fall.
Monthly sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific compared to the long-term average for all moderate-to-strong El Niño years since 1950, showing how 2015/16 (black line) compares to other events. Climate.gov graph.
Keep up-to-date with the current status of ENSO at the NOAA Climate Site
